Note 17: Oct Update

Note 17 – Oct Update

Oct 2018 hasn’t been the best of month for my investment. In fact, it was stomach churning to a certain extent. The total portfolio further declined by -3.6% MOM, and a -6.4% YTD. The main reason was the further escalation of the trade war, decline in the tech stocks, coupled with decline in the China market. As I am writing, it is already in the mid of Nov and the market has already recovered per se.

These are the ups and downs of an investor, and as they say, live by the sword, die by the sword.

The portfolio declined was mainly exacerbated by the huge decline in my Singapore portfolio (which consist of my cash investment and my SRS). I shall not go into individual stocks, but the STI “blue chips” don’t seem so royal at this stage. Current cash at the moment stands at 15%.

Singapore portfolio

The Singapore fund is still on the negative, but this time is the rare time, it actually did better than the benchmark (not really that of a consolation as well).

I had sold some stocks and added a small amount of Mun Siong this month. As time goes, I am building my Singapore portfolio into a more value focus share. However, due to the issues of my strategy to shift it to SRS, I do have some transactional issues. My aim is to slowly shift the liquid cash portion of my investment into contributing to my SRS per year. That amount is 15,300 and it also means every year, I might need to buy and sell shares in order to keep the integrity. The small fees is something I am ok with paying, but the market timing is not. Eg, if I sell away Hong Fok on 21^st Dec, and contribute to SRS on 27^th Dec, I might face a situation which Hong Fok has increased substantially, after the 1^st Dec of the next year. You might ask why am I doing it, but I am quite anal about tracking my performance, and this is something I am quite insistent on. Till now, I have not found a great solution as well. At the same time, I have put 15,000 into the SGS bond, as a last minute resort also, this cash drag has greatly caused me to lose out on some dividends.

Singapore Portfolio
	Start of year	YTD	% Performance
	SGD	SG SGD	STI	SG SGD YTD	MOM Port
Jan-18	227,708.6	231,150.20	3.8%	1.5%	1.5%
Feb-18	227,708.6	229,668.96	3.6%	0.9%	-0.6%
Mar-18	227,708.6	227,103.15	1.0%	-0.3%	-1.1%
Apr-18	227,708.6	232,084.87	7.0%	1.9%	2.2%
May-18	227,708.6	225,337.60	3.0%	-1.0%	-2.9%
Jun-18	227,708.6	215,468.62	-2.2%	-5.4%	-4.4%
Jul-18	227,708.6	219,450.08	-0.2%	-3.6%	1.8%
Aug-18	227,708.6	216,822.59	-2.5%	-4.8%	-1.2%
Sep-18	227,708.6	218,720.13	-3.4%	-3.9%	0.9%
Oct-18	227,708.6	210,604.80	-8.0%	-7.5%	-3.7%

HK and Greater China (Dragon Fund)

The true saving grace for this year. I made some tactical adjustment, selling off my Fortune REIT HKD and putting my money into Hopewell, which has declined significantly.  I have a huge portion of my investment into HK property shares and the recent news have badly affected the outlook. However, I am not too worried. My real concern is how do I allocate capital to take advantage of the undervalued market in China right now.

China HK (HKD)
	Start of year	YTD	% Performance
	CN HK (SGD)	CH HK SGD	Hang Seng	Dragon SGD YTD	MOM
Jan-18	49,777.4	46,179.31	10.6%	-7.2%	4.9%
Feb-18	49,777.4	46,413.42	4.3%	-6.8%	10.6%
Mar-18	49,777.4	51,034.04	2.2%	2.5%	10.0%
Apr-18	49,777.4	51,319.75	3.9%	3.1%	0.6%
May-18	49,777.4	53,544.07	3.5%	7.6%	4.3%
Jun-18	49,777.4	52,703.63	-1.5%	5.9%	-1.6%
Jul-18	49,777.4	53,371.44	-2.0%	7.2%	1.3%
Aug-18	49,777.4	53,632.78	-4.7%	7.7%	0.5%
Sep-18	49,777.4	53,308.55	-4.1%	7.1%	-0.1%
Oct-18	49,777.4	51,095.45	-13.5%	2.6%	-4.2%

Malaysia (Nasi Lemak)

My biggest heartache. My strategy still remains, but Malaysia is undergoing a different kind of challenges. There are still plenty of stocks that we can look into, but not much ammo for me to use in this portfolio right now.

Soon to be next year, I am possibly expanding the Nasi Lemak portfolio into a ASEAN 5 (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam) portfolio. However, I am still looking at the amount needed. My wish is that it should have at least 50,000 SGD as a base. Meanwhile, I will stick to my Nasi Lemak focus.

Nasi Lemak (Local Currency)
	Start of year	YTD	% Performance
	SGD	NL SGD	KLCI	Nasi Lemak SGD YTD	MOM
Jan-18	9,828.4	9,825.05	4.3%	0.0%	-4.3%
Feb-18	9,828.4	9,702.63	2.7%	-1.3%	-7.5%
Mar-18	9,828.4	8,864.60	4.9%	-9.8%	-9.6%
Apr-18	9,828.4	9,032.05	5.4%	-8.1%	2.5%
May-18	9,828.4	6,113.52	-0.5%	-37.8%	-28.3%
Jun-18	9,828.4	8,653.44	-3.0%	-12.0%	40.7%
Jul-18	9,828.4	8,424.41	0.3%	-14.3%	-1.8%
Aug-18	9,828.4	8,220.66	1.4%	-16.4%	-1.7%
Sep-18	9,828.4	7,918.31	3.0%	-19.4%	-2.8%
Oct-18	9,828.4	7,189.69	-0.8%	-26.8%	-9.4%

Vice Portfolio

The portfolio improved MOM, due to the rally from PMI. I do not intend to further invest anymore, as mentioned, this is just a hobby portfolio for me to dabble. But I  believe with the regular dividends, it should be able to give me enough money to invest in 1 more counter soon by end of next year.

Vice
	Start of year	YTD	% Performance
	SGD	Vice SGD		Vice SGD YTD	MOM
Jan-18	15,591.4	$   15,455.76		-0.9%	-0.9%
Feb-18	15,591.4	$   14,874.48		-4.6%	-3.8%
Mar-18	15,591.4	$   14,795.76		-5.1%	-0.5%
Apr-18	15,591.4	$   14,157.32		-9.2%	-4.3%
May-18	15,591.4	$   13,983.42		-10.3%	-1.2%
Jun-18	15,591.4	$   14,371.44		-7.8%	2.8%
Jul-18	15,591.4	$   14,997.44		-3.8%	4.4%
Aug-18	15,591.4	$   14,217.06		-8.8%	-5.2%
Sep-18	15,591.4	$   14,309.12		-8.2%	-4.6%
Oct-18	15,591.4	$   14,690.72		-5.8%	2.7%

Overall

Shall not say much, but the performance is demoralizing. However, it is also a good time for me to reflect as well.

Starting from next year, I am going to put in my sinking fund as part of the portfolio. It will be $10,000 as starting.

Trigger for the Sinking Fund activation will be to enter when overall market has declined by 30%. It will then be distributed accordingly to my overall allocation. At this moment, my belief is that US market has not seen the melt down required. And there is a chance that the 10k might be used there. However, I am also aware that I need to slowly reduce my stock holdings and prepare. For this, I am using dividends and selling off shares which has hit their value.

Total
	Start of year	YTD	% Performance
	SGD	Total SGD		Portfolio YTD	MOM
Jan-18	302,905.8	302,610.3		-0.1%	1.6%
Feb-18	302,9 a05.8	300,659.5		-0.7%	-0.6%
Mar-18	302,905.8	301,797.6		-0.4%	0.4%
Apr-18	302,905.8	306,594.0		1.2%	1.6%
May-18	302,905.8	298,978.6		-1.3%	-2.5%
Jun-18	302,905.8	291,197.1		-3.9%	-2.6%
Jul-18	302,905.8	296,243.4		-2.2%	1.7%
Aug-18	302,905.8	292,893.1		-3.3%	-1.1%
Sep-18	302,905.8	294,256.1		-2.9%	-0.7%
Oct-18	302,905.8	283,580.7		-6.4%	-3.6%